Fantasy Baseball: The art of positional awareness, and how to find value in the back-end of drafts
Fantasy Baseball: The art of positional awareness, and how to find value in the back-end of drafts
Corbin YoungTue, March 17, 2026 at 2:39 PM UTC
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Within the top-120 picks — roughly 10 rounds of a 12-team league — there are 30 starting pitchers drafted in Yahoo fantasy baseball leagues. That includes Spencer Schwellenbach, who should be falling in drafts based on the elbow surgery he sustained in February. Around 10-11 relievers go within the top-120 picks in drafts, which follows a similar trend to high-stakes NFBC leagues, though they tend to go earlier in those formats.
Other interesting positional notes include six second and third basemen going inside the top-100 picks, making it a somewhat top-heavy position. When we remove the infield and outfield eligible players, 25 outfielders are going within the top-100 picks in Yahoo leagues. Since Yahoo leagues have one catcher spot, drafters can find value throughout the draft, with Cal Raleigh as the only catcher eligible player going within the top-50 picks. Five catchers go within the top-50 picks on Yahoo. Catcher tends to be a position to wait on in Yahoo formats, but prioritize the position in two-catcher leagues.
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Meanwhile, shortstop is one of the deepest positions, with 13 players going within the top-100 picks. We also have nine more shortstop-eligible players from picks 100-200, showing it can be a position to wait on or use in a utility spot. For leagues with middle infield spots, finding two shortstop-eligible players will likely fill those positions. Like second and third base, the first base position looks somewhat top-heavy, including seven within the top 50 and 12 going inside the top-100 picks. That includes Ben Rice and Salvador Pérez, who also have catcher eligibility.
Use average draft position as a map to find how the market tends to value certain positions as a starting point for your draft strategy, assuming fantasy managers have already reviewed the league rules and format. Potential value picks can be found later in the draft, but we should be studying the market prices.
Finding Values in Final Five Rounds
Most standard Yahoo leagues have 23 rounds, meaning 230 picks are made in 10-team leagues and 276 selections in 12-teamers. That said, we’ll use an arbitrary number of pick 175 and beyond, to find potential values as we’re building from the back, meaning the final handful of rounds or so. We have 23 pitchers going at pick 175 and beyond, including a few closer sleepers like Dennis Santana and Ryan Walker. This also looks like the range of sleeper starting pitchers and questionable arms, including Andrew Abbott, Shota Imanaga, Cade Horton, Zac Gallen, Reid Detmers and Drew Rasmussen.
Unfortunately, we can’t filter by scoring formats because we have some relievers that might be speculative options or ones drafted in saves plus holds leagues. Those relievers include Robert Suárez, Tyler Rogers, Matt Strahm, Alex Vesia, Luke Weaver, Kyle Finnegan and Garrett Whitlock. Or there’s a chance these pitchers have been drafted there for ratio stabilization in head-to-head category leagues. Then we have veterans and pitchers with risk like Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Aaron Nola and Roki Sasaki. In Yahoo formats, Cole, Rodón, Nola and Sasaki can be low-risk, high-reward pitchers as one of the final picks.
On the hitter end, it’s a fun group, including veterans, bounce-back candidates and undervalued players based on the format. If fantasy managers waited on catchers until pick 175, it’s time to look for one like Alejandro Kirk, Dillon Dingler, J.T. Realmuto, Carson Kelly and Austin Wells, though Kirk and Realmuto have the clearest path to volume. Dingler has been recovering from elbow surgery in late January, so it’s something to monitor from a health standpoint. If these options make you feel uneasy, it’s a sign to prioritize a catcher earlier.
Veterans like Christian Walker, Marcus Semien, Gleyber Torres, Max Muncy (Dodgers), Ryan McMahon, Jorge Polanco, Nolan Arenado and Giancarlo Stanton go within picks 175 and 230. Besides Torres, Polanco and Semien, to an extent, the rest have concerns depending on the scoring format. However, the most intriguing hitters in this range include Bryan Reynolds, Alec Burleson, Brenton Doyle, Spencer Torkelson, Brendan Donovan and JJ Wetherholt. Two stolen-base targets are in the 175-230 pick range, like Chandler Simpson and Andrés Giménez, though they might not be reliable options in shallower formats.
Hitter Values Late in DraftsAlec Burleson, 1B/OF, STL
Alec Burleson has been sneakily productive with 18-20 home runs, a handful of steals and a quality batting average over the past two seasons. Burleson showed strong plate discipline with an above-average contact rate (84%). That gives Burleson a floor to build upon as he compiles counting stats. Burleson’s power skills have been higher than the league average, given his 7.3% barrel per plate appearance rate.
Alec Burleson wOBA by Season. (Photo by Corbin Young)
That aligns with Burleson’s bat speed increasing to a career best at 72.4 mph and 29.2% fast swing rate, slightly higher than the league norms in bat speed (71.7 mph) and fast swing rate (23.6%). One way to visualize Burleson as a good hitter is his success across multiple pitch types, with a wOBA of .329 or higher against all three. Unfortunately, the home park doesn’t do Burleson any favors, ranking 23rd in home run park factors for left-handed hitters.
Although Burleson lacks significant upside, there can be value from consistency and strong plate discipline for a hitter who will accumulate plate appearances while hitting in the top third of a below-average projected lineup.
Bryan Reynolds, OF, PIT
When we examine Bryan Reynolds’ skills, most advanced metrics are similar in 2025 to previous seasons. That hints at a bounce-back season for Reynolds, who used to be a steady producer for four consecutive seasons. Reynolds’ 84.4% zone contact rate and 70.8% zone swing rate remained within one percentage point of his career averages. He slightly increased his bat speed to 72.2 mph in 2025 from 71.6 mph in 2024. It’s worth highlighting that Reynolds’s bat speed was around 2 mph faster from the right side as a switch-hitter.
The same goes for the speed and athleticism data, but Reynolds ran fewer times in 2025. Reynolds’ stolen base opportunity rate fell to 3% while converting only 60% of his attempts. Although Reynolds had a 5% career stolen-base opportunity rate, he typically had 75% of his chances throughout his career. If Reynolds doesn’t run as often, his stolen bases will be below five, as we saw in 2025; the floor in the range of outcomes.
Know your draft format and wait on Reynolds as a third outfielder or utility-spot option since the skills suggest he should bounce back to something in between 2024 and 2025.
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Hitter Wild card: JJ Wetherholt, 2B/SS, STL
Thankfully, we have Statcast data in minor league ballparks, so we have an idea of a player’s plate discipline and exit velocities for JJ Wetherholt. He didn’t chase (22.2%) and made an above-average contact rate (80.8%) in Triple-A last season. Like many young hitters, Wetherholt’s launch angles could be an issue, with a 12-degree launch angle and 43% groundball rate. In the spring training small sample, we’ve seen Wetherholt’s launch angle at 24 degrees. However, Wetherholt boasted an above-average barrel rate (8.7%) and 94.3 mph exit velocity on flyballs and line drives, showing he can hit the ball hard when he elevates it in the minor league sample.
JJ Wetherholt exit velocity by zone 2025-2026. (Photo by Corbin Young/MLB.com
Wetherholt has been penciled into the starting lineup for the Cardinals, though he hasn’t been added to the 40-man roster yet as a non-roster invitee to spring training. There’s a good chance Wetherholt breaks camp with the team or shortly after the season starts. The projections have a fair expectation of double-digit home runs and stolen bases with a .250 batting average based on the peak projection systems. In Yahoo leagues, it’s worth taking a chance on Wetherholt as a low-risk, high-upside player, with the potential to stash in an N/A spot if he starts in the minors.
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Pitcher Values Late in DraftsShota Imanaga, SP, CHC
Shota Imanaga went from outperforming his expected ERA (3.75) in 2024 to finishing nearly identical to the expected numbers in 2025 (3.73). Unfortunately, Imanaga’s 4.46 xERA suggests he was lucky in 2025. Imanaga has strong control with a 31-32% ball rate and an above-average 13.9% swinging-strike rate throughout his career. That suggests Imanaga possesses above-average skills, including a splitter that generates an 18.7% swinging-strike rate in 2025, down from 26.2% in 2024.
Shota Imanaga 10-game rolling average. (Photo by Corbin Young/Fangraphs)
Besides Imanaga’s splitter, his slider has been somewhat effective from a whiff standpoint, evidenced by a 15.4% swinging-strike rate in 2025. He tends to use a sweeping slider as his second-most used pitch (33.3%) in 2025. That’s helpful because Imanaga’s sweeper allows a .213 wOBA (.228 xwOBA) against left-handed hitters. Furthermore, Imanaga throws a high spin four-seamer (2,482 RPM) that he locates in the upper third of the zone with 18 inches of induced vertical break (IVB). He lacks extension, so he needs to rely upon the high-spin four-seamer and locations.
It’s unusual to find above-average skills from a starting pitcher in the final rounds of Yahoo leagues. Trust Imanaga’s skills and soak up the discounted draft price as a mid-to-late-round sleeper.
Drew Rasmussen, SP, TB
Injuries have previously been a concern for Drew Rasmussen. Rasmussen threw over 100 innings once in 2022 before hitting 150 in 2025. He was fortunate last season with a 3.59 xERA, nearly a full run higher than his actual ERA (2.76). Rasmussen showed solid control with a 33% ball rate. However, his swinging-strike rate fell to 10.1% in 2025 compared to his career average (11.6%). The home ballpark was an issue.
Drew Rasmussen's 10-game rolling average. (Photo by Corbin Young/FanGraphs)
It’s worth highlighting that Rasmussen was pitching in a minor league ballpark in 2025. The Rays played in George Steinbrenner Field, which ranked 14th in strikeout and sixth in home run park factors. For context, the Rays’ home park ranked third in strikeout and 14th in home run park factors throughout the previous two seasons (2023-2024). That tells us Rasmussen’s stuff and strikeout skills should see an uptick at home in the Rays’ home park in 2026.
Drew Rasmussen's vertical movement vs. average (inches) by season. (Photo by Corbin Young/Baseball Savant)
We can see some of those hints via the pitch movement profiles for Rasmussen. He lost nearly an inch of IVB on the four-seam, with the cutter losing nearly six inches of downward movement. That was further evident in Rasmussen’s cutter (13.2%) and four-seam (10%) losing whiffs compared to 2024. However, Rasmussen’s pitch level swinging-strike rates in 2025 weren’t far from the career averages.
The Rays value stuff, and Rasmussen fits the mold with four pitches, evidenced by an above-average grade in the Stuff+ models. Target Rasmussen later in drafts.
Pitcher Wild card: Roki Sasaki, SP, LAD
After plenty of hype for Roki Sasaki last season, he missed over four months with a right shoulder impingement injury. Sasaki returned in late September, with the Dodgers deploying him out of the bullpen. He recorded saves across 10 innings in nine appearances during the playoffs. However, the Dodgers have reported that he will be in the starting rotation for the 2026 season.
Keep in mind, we’re dealing with a tiny 36-inning sample from 2025, with terrible small-sample skills. That’s evident in Sasaki’s 41% ball rate and 9.1% swinging-strike rate in 2025. Sasaki’s primary whiff pitch wasn’t great, with a 14.4% swinging-strike rate, over three percentage points below the league average. However, let’s dig deeper to examine Sasaki’s pitch-level movement profiles to find optimism. Fernando Cruz and Logan Gilbert’s splitters might be the most comparable from a velocity and movement profile standpoint.
Splitter leaders in vertical movement vs. average pitch. (Photo by Corbin Young)
Sasaki’s splitter is nasty from a movement standpoint, with 42.1 inches of downward movement. That translated to Sasaki’s splitter generating 8.2 inches beyond the average pitch, ranking first among right-handed pitchers. It’s this weird and deadly splitter with a low spin rate (second-lowest among all splitters), leading to tons of downward movement and an inch of horizontal fade. Theoretically, Sasaki’s splitter should generate whiffs and weak contact.
Right-handed pitchers with a 40-degree arm angle and 7 feet of extension in 2025. (Photo by Corbin Young)
Sasaki generates plenty of extension while coming from a higher arm angle. He was one of 13 right-handed pitchers with a 40-degree arm angle and seven or more feet of extension. Although it might be a high-end comparison, Sasaki theoretically should generate more whiffs with this arm slot and mechanics. We can’t compare Sasaki to Gilbert or Tyler Glasnow since they’re unicorns at over 6-foot-6.
With Sasaki’s high-velocity four-seamer, it should perform better, given the 7.1 feet of extension (93rd percentile). Interestingly, Sasaki’s four-seam has an above-average horizontal movement profile, which looks unusual coming from a higher arm angle (45 degrees). Unfortunately, Sasaki’s four-seam doesn’t rise as much as we want with the elite extension numbers.
Roki Sasaki sliver heatmaps. (Photo by Corbin Young/MLB.com)
Furthermore, Sasaki’s slider drops (+3.8) and sweeps (+7.4) several inches beyond the average pitch, which should lead to swinging strikes and weaker contact, especially against right-handed hitters. Sasaki’s Yahoo draft price makes him an intriguing high-upside pitcher, given the potential volatility in usage and replacement value during the season. However, Sasaki looks like a risky pitcher with a limited sample in deeper formats like in NFBC, going around pick 240. There’s a saying in fantasy football about leaning into the uncertainty. That’s what Sasaki presents: uncertainty and upside at the price.
Source: “AOL Sports”
